03 October 2007

The tipping point of experience

A little while ago I was reading Jeff Atwood's posts on estimating and managing projects.

Jeff initially deals with Steve McConnel's doghouse analogy and the problems encountered when scaling projects (and by implication, developers) from the doghouse to the skyscraper. That is worth a read, even just to revise.

The bit that caught my eye was where he discussed Steve's more recent build-a-fort home project. Jeff counterpoints the copious evidence of underestimated tasks with pointers to agile and iterative development techniques. Not to apear jaded, but the advantages of of short iterative cycles should, to my mind, be obvious these days. I certainly consider it a bit old-hat, since we were doing it in the AVM at Lotus Consulting over a decade ago.

What I found missing, was any discussion around "tooling", and by this I'm not trying to focus on choosing the right framework, but rather the broader scope of all the tools your team will use, no matter how inconsequential.

Having done a similar fort home project for my kids, I believe it is the perfect case study, perhaps because we are unwilling to sacrifice quality and thus highlight the other aspects. I of course have a ready example to illustrate my point. The culprit of some serious delays, a teeny weeny little star screwdriver bit from a kit.

During construction of The Jungle Gym (fort) I used a drill and wood screws for the smaller stuff like floor planking and balustrades. I had opted for a drill bit adapter that could take both the drill and the screwdriver. Initial tests proved successful and I could drill and screw in fast succession, often with one hand. However, once I was in full swing I noticed that this task took far longer than estimated.

Initially I thought it was due to poor quality screws, as the heads would often strip (I was using a speed adjustable drill since screwing them in by hand was just not an option). Unfortunately there were no other makes available and my frustration grew. Eventually my frustration led to me damaging the bit in an attempt to remove a stripped screw.

Since doing this by hand was still not an option, I did a fair bit of searching, and bought a packet of nondescript screwdriver bits and resumed work. The difference was amazing, I was driving in screws faster than I'd originally anticipate and I wasn't stripping any screw heads anymore. This same screwdriver bit is still going strong a good year or so on.

This seems to have been one of those few times when losing my cool has paid off. After all, how was I, as an ardent non-metallurgist, to have a hope in hell of knowing the difference in the bits? In fact the bit from the kit was titanium coated and should have been superior. The hardware store drones were certainly not in a position to help. So I just chalked it up to good old fashioned experience and moved on.

Then I read Jeff's article and it got me thinking. When do you hit that breakdown point that leads to experience, and can it be brought forward or even to light, without a breakdown? Especially in such less obvious cases?

After much mulling and list making, I've come to the conclusion that there's only one factor, awareness. You have to be aware that such situations can arise and must look for them and their possible solutions. Perhaps even plan for them, or at least the exercise to unearth them. The alternative is to blindly continue until you reach the breakdown point, if ever.

As with most issues in project management, there are many shades of Grey. This is is a discussion on efficiencies, which boil down to cost. But at least you can then make informed decisions and substantiate the trade-off early, rather than make excuses late.

Since I like lists, here are some of the more salient points to consider:
  • Your tools might not be equally suited to all phases of a project, be they in-house or vendor sourced.
  • The more inconsequential a tool seems, the more likely you are to overlook it's impact.
  • If you don't look for it, you may never find it.
  • As illustrated above, it may not be obvious until you try something different.
  • Especially in IT Development, the focus on getting the job done very often blinds our objectivity. Regularly step back and re-evaluate (one of many excellent tips from GTD).
PS - Before you think I'm a handyman god, and ask me to build you a fort, I also had the normal sort of delay. Like having to retro fit extra floor supports (joists?) to be able to support the average South African male (as in me).

07 September 2007

Never a truer word

John Kay's article at Business Day covers the similarity between the current sub-prime hedging debacle and the 1988 Loyd's re-insurance catastrophe.

He points out that starting with greed moving all the way through self-delusion, honest incompetence through to conscious deception, we end up in a situation where...
Each generation repeats the experience of its predecessors, not in broad outline but in considerable detail.

Something every investor should keep in mind, but his closing words are priceless...
The most costly investment advice of all is the expert assurance that “it’s different this time”.

Of course this should rate right up there with "Trust me, I'm a Doctor" as something to set alarm bells ringing. Not just in investing, but in life in general.

So pay attention next time you hear those words.

06 September 2007

New Age Banana Republic?

Have a look at this article and ask yourself, "Is South Africa becoming a Banana Republic?". Whilst definitely adding our own special flavor to the mix, we seem to be following the recipe.

To go from the world's darling fledgling democracy to the current situation, where dissenting voices are silenced, is just the start of a mad slide into a Zimbabwean Hell.

I should point out that this is a constant underlying theme within both National, as well as Local Government. A theme which is gathering momentum as the ruling elite gain confidence in their ability to do as they please.

What is obvious to anybody who opens their eyes and ears, is that South Africans are becoming increasingly unhappy with the Government's performance. But then again, we know that the wishes of the populace are of little concern to such people.

Lets just hope that the schism between the ruling elite and their opponents within ANC is fueled by such concerns rather than a simple power struggle to be the next despot.

31 August 2007

Go Rocky!

Wow, was surprised to see that Rocky made it onto the top of the log for the technical section of Linked In's new Answers feature.

Normally the Lotus hourglass doesn't feature prominently in the wider web. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come.

27 June 2007

It snowed!

It seems to only come around about every quarter century or so, so we're very lucky to have woken up to a white tableau this morning, even if we're cursing the cold.

The kids of course rushed out to experience their first snow.


Yolande told me later that Kieran had actually prayed for snow a couple of nights ago, so we're now in "careful what you pray for" parental education mode ;)

18 May 2007

Patent cold war

The News 24 article on Microsoft's claimed 235 patent infringements within Linux, likened the battle between The Beast and OIN to the cold war. The closing jibe is priceless:
Nobody wants a patent Armageddon on their hands; it would hurt the industry and especially the customers. Microsoft should remember how the real cold war ended, with the victory of the free world and the collapse of the "evil empire".

17 April 2007

Silverlight

Scoble chiding Microsft blogger Loke Uie caught my eye and made me take look at Silverlight. Tim Sneath has another entry on the topic.

Don't know enough about it yet, but if the hype is close to reality, it seems to be really interesting and worth some time fiddling.

It comes in two flavors: Windows and Mac. No Linux version, so I don't know how they can claim to be cross platform.

The install size is really the surprise 1.1 MB for the Windows bversion and 3.5MB for the Apple version. Have Microsoft stopped bloating?